Earlier this week, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked the Donald Trump administration over rising US inflation, using a cartoon of a failed catapult and negative economic headlines to argue that the war is making life more expensive for Americans. As Washington and Tehran continue their confrontation, Iran is increasingly targeting the American public with a social media campaign highlighting fuel prices, inflation and the financial burden of war ahead of November’s midterm elections.
On Wednesday, Ghalibaf shared a news story on US inflation rising to 3.7 per cent in September. The post also featured a comic strip from the Road Runner cartoon in which Wile E. Coyote builds a catapult that misfires, launching a boulder back at him.
“Let’s ‘play the percentages’. Not in odds, but in the % increases,” Ghalibaf wrote in a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led the Trump administration’s sanctions campaign against Iran.
Last month, Bessent said he represented “the house”, likening the economy to a casino while discussing the national debt and bond market. Ghalibaf turned that analogy against the administration, highlighting rising inflation and the cost-of-living pressures accompanying the war.
Days earlier, Ghalibaf had shared an image of a ghost shaped like a bell curve, accompanied by references to rising diesel prices, falling consumer confidence and worsening housing affordability.
The posts are part of a broader Iranian effort to communicate directly with Americans, portraying the economic consequences of the war as a domestic political liability for Trump as Republicans fight to retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November’s midterm elections.
IRGC urges Americans to challenge their leaders
In a letter published on September 29, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appealed directly to the American public, accusing Trump of lying about the cost of the war and the state of the US economy. It also dismissed the president’s claims that oil prices would soon fall sharply.
“Countries around the world have lost their faith in the US economy. Demand for American bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to offload their US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years,” the IRGC said.
“Americans need to wake up. They need to wrest control back from corrupt politicians. Now is the time, as the American political system is at its weakest.”
While the claims about international confidence in US bonds and an impending economic collapse are assertions by the IRGC, the letter illustrates Tehran’s strategy of framing the war as a burden shared by ordinary Americans and Iranians while seeking to weaken public support for Washington’s military campaign.
Iran seeks to raise the political cost of war
Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was seeking to increase the political cost of the war for Trump by appealing directly to the American public.
“It’s not necessarily that they’re trying to get Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, other than just overall increasing the costs on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing that game of information warfare and getting out their own narrative and propaganda as well,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.
The November 3 midterm elections provide the backdrop to Iran’s campaign. Republicans are seeking to retain control of both chambers of Congress, while Democrats hope to capitalise on voter concerns about inflation, affordability and the administration’s handling of the conflict.
A Democratic victory could intensify congressional scrutiny of the war and complicate efforts to sustain military funding. However, a change in control of Congress would not automatically end the conflict or fundamentally alter US policy towards Iran.
Toossi said there was disagreement within Iran over the potential impact of a Democratic victory. While some argue that hawkish views on Iran among Democrats would limit the scope for change, others believe an electoral defeat could leave Trump politically vulnerable and constrain his ability to sustain the war.
“I don’t think they’re hedging their bets either way, and I don’t think it necessarily affects their overall strategy of increasing the costs [of war] regardless of whatever happens in November,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.
Iran’s campaign, therefore, appears less focused on securing a particular electoral outcome than on exploiting political divisions surrounding the conflict.
Trump dismisses the midterm factor
Trump has rejected suggestions that the elections will influence his approach to Iran. “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don’t realise is that I’m not running,” he said at the United Nations General Assembly last month.
“I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn’t even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
The remarks underscore the competing narratives surrounding the conflict. Washington maintains that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is a central objective, while Tehran portrays the military campaign as an expensive undertaking that is hurting American households without guaranteeing a decisive outcome.
The economic stakes are considerable. US petrol prices averaged $4.33 per US gallon on October 16, while diesel reached $6.33, according to figures cited by Al Jazeera. The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, has disrupted shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, contributing to volatility in global energy markets.
US consumer prices rose 0.6 per cent in September, taking annual inflation to 3.7 per cent, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Petrol prices rose 9.1 per cent during the month, adding to pressure on household budgets.
The war has also generated substantial military expenditure. A Congressional Budget Office estimate put the cost at approximately $38 billion by September, with a prolonged campaign potentially adding another $3 billion a month.
The economic fallout offers Tehran a way to challenge the administration’s narrative and appeal to Americans concerned about the cost of filling their cars, buying groceries and paying their bills.
Whether the campaign influences the midterm elections remains uncertain. But by turning inflation, fuel prices and military spending into weapons of political messaging, Tehran is seeking to make the war a domestic liability for Trump, regardless of which party emerges stronger from the November elections.
